Geelong's Gary Ablett and Essendon's Henry Slattery jostle for position
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Docklands, Sunday, May 31, 2.10pm
Head to head: Essendon 112 wins, Geelong 88 wins, five draws
Last time: Geelong 22.18 (150) d Essendon 6.15 (51), round two, 2008, at Telstra Dome
MISSING IN ACTION
Essendon
Courtenay Dempsey (ankle) - test
Dustin Fletcher (leg) - 2 weeks
Michael Hurley (wrist) - TBC
Rhys Magin (AC joint) - TBC
Andrew Welsh (ankle) - test
John Williams (finger) – 2 weeks
Scott Gumbleton (back) - indefinite
David Hille (knee) - season
Geelong
Shannon Byrnes (hamstring) - test
Paul Chapman (finger) - 1-2 weeks
Ryan Gamble (concussion) - test
Tom Lonergan (calf) - test
Darren Milburn (ankle) - test
Steven Motlop (shoulder) - 6 weeks
Brad Ottens (knee) - 3-4 weeks
Scott Simpson (ankle) - 9 weeks
Ranga Ediriwickrama (hamstring) - 3-4 weeks
Adam Varcoe (hamstring) - 2-3 weeks
Mitch Brown (broken leg) - season
Matthew Egan (foot) - season
Josh Hunt (knee) - season
Mathew Stokes (suspension) - 1 week
FORM
Essendon: WLWLW
Geelong: WWWWW
SUMMARY This clash promises to be one of the most attractive games of the season. Like Geelong’s opponent last week, Essendon isn’t afraid to run and take the game on. The Bombers’ coach will encourage them to do that, so there should be plenty of goals kicked in an open, free-flowing affair. But will Essendon’s younger bodies hold up against the more-seasoned Cats?
Essendon coach Matthew Knights is definitely on the right track with his team. The fact the Bombers are fourth – with key players still to resume – bodes well for the coming seasons. This week his team gets to pit itself against the best. In 2009 the Bombers have beaten the reigning premiers and, after giving away a start, pushed ladder leaders St Kilda. If they can keep pace with the Cats early, the Bombers will back their fresh legs to outrun Geelong at the finish. They’ve been terrific all season but can’t afford to drop off for a quarter against a team that continues to punish any side that lapses.
Is Geelong showing signs that its continual dominance is wearing it down? Did the Bulldogs simply take their game to a whole new level last week, or did the Cats have a bit of a downer? We’ll know more as of 5pm on Sunday. Geelong’s injury list hasn’t been this long for two years, but there is still class on every line. Its midfield continues to plough on and the class in the forward line is difficult for any side to stop.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Angus Monfries (Essendon)
Monfries can be a little up and down but his best is very good. The Bombers would like the ball in his hands at every opportunity because the small forward uses the footy well. His role negating Luke Hodge – while being creative at the same time – in round seven was superb. If he can make Geelong’s attacking defenders equally accountable, then every one of Monfries’ touches is likely to be crucial.
Cameron Mooney (Geelong)
Mooney was publicly pulled into line by his coach after the Cats scraped home last week. It’ll be interesting to see how the aggressive big man responds against the Bombers. Mooney is likely to get a young defender minding him, but will any Essendon player try to stir up the Geelong star? Despite having an All-Australian jumper to his name, Mooney is still underrated by many, and could well be his team’s most important player.
QUESTION MARKS
Essendon’s attacking brand of footy wasn’t quite refined enough to handle the Cats in round two last season, when it was belted by 99 points. The Bombers of 2009 are a far more polished team. But just how much progress has Essendon made?
Last time the two teams met, the Cats’ on-ball brigade ran riot. Gary Ablett (34 disposals and two goals), Jimmy Bartel (38 and two goals), Joel Corey (30 and two goals) and Joel Selwood (26 and one goal) all cut loose. Can the Bombers stop Geelong’s midfield?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Neither team is at full strength for the round 10 clash but fans should be expecting a ripper from two sides who refuse to go defensive. On paper, all things point to Mark Thompson’s team chalking up another four points. The Cats love Docklands, having won their past 12 matches there by an average of 10 goals.
Whoever gets on top, it could be a blowout given both teams’ propensity to go on the offensive.
Last week the Bulldogs did exploit a lack of pace in the Cats’ defence, and that is an area the Bombers will similarly be looking to take advantage. But Geelong’s experience and more-hardened bodies should win the day.
PREDICTION
Geelong by 28 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
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